Category Archives: Trading

Market view (SPX, VIX, ASX)


Noting more indicative of a storm brewing then a full absence for the “wall of worry” in media to refuel rally with few bears and markets frozen in a complete state of complacency.
Overbought conditions everywhere with deteriorating participation and negative divergences.
NYSI flashes red
20140604 NYSI
VIX ready to sky rocket
20140604 VIX FWD
XJO ranging near the top
20140604 XJO channels
SPX hours overbought
20140604 SPX 2HRS
SPX days overbought
20140604 SPX DAYS
SPX weeks long developing rising wedge
20140604 SPX WEEKS

20/02/2014 view (XJO, XMM, XFJ)


10 days green
ASX is at the key reversal now and here is another load of charts as of 19/02 trades closure
S&P 200
6 months
20140219 XJO 6 months
12 months
20140219 XJO 12 months
and the 10 years view
20140219 XJO 10 years
- we are again at the key resistance now

No doubt the local market is driven by 2 biggies – mining and banks. Last bounce is fueled by mining, finances were lagging to keep up the the same speed.
Financial sector
6 months
20140219 XFJ 6 months
12 months
20140219 XFJ 12 months
and the helicopter view
20140219 XFJ 10 years

Mining (BHP made a major break out from the year long ranging, RIO is within the same raising channel)
6 months
20140219 XMM 6 months
12 months
20140219 XMM 12 months
high view
20140219 XMM 10 years

so with XJO we have now a topping negative divergence in RSI, sloping down MACD and the raising channel break
4hrs chart
20140219 XJO 3 months - 4hrs

04/02/2014 view (MQG, WTIC)


While the selloff drama picks up the speed, it did not reach the bottom line of the channel yet where the biggest one day sell is still ahead.
AUD executed well the anticipated bounce heading to .92 heights.
MQG today finally punched the bottom of the 12 month channel line and entered into the sell territory along with the rest of the financials.
6 Months
20140130 MQG 6 months channels
12 months
20140130 MQG 12 months channels

I am keeping an eye on WTIC, waiting the final confirmation to enter the shorts
20140204 WTIC Weeks
20140204 WTIC Days

29/01/2014 View (AUD)


Very quick one on possible scenarios for AUD.
AS in classical EW that applies well to declines 1-2-3 might already in place where big 3 might not yet reached in the bigger scale.
If so, we might see the bounce coming soon but the biggest move is still ahead.
20140128 FXA weks

24/01/2014 view (Sentiment, RUT, S&P200, ANZ, RIO)


Fear perfectly ripe to take a deep dive
20140124 FearGreed
NYSI dynamics finally reached it’s heights to start the reversal
If I took this one into account earlier, I’d be able to gain some extra with better timing
20140124 NYSI
Russel screams for correction on all charts beyond any reasonable sense for the same growth pace
20140124 RUT Days
20140124 RUT Week
Though if its real trend reversal it will take months to play out through intense congestion

ASX S&P200 made a rising wedge break
20140123 XJO 10 days (raising wedge)

In days the diamond resolves as it should so far. I noticed a very similar formation on XJO back in June-Aug 2013 but those times the trend continued.
This time the aggressive sell channel did not sustain but the moderate one is well confirmed
MA9 MA13 crosses MA20 and indicates the uptrend reversal with the lower bollinger band swaying away, ready to accommodate the emerging down trend.
I reckon we should see MA200 retest very soon.
20140124 XJO Days
In the weeks view the up trend is not changed yet
20140123 XJO Weeks Channels

Keeping close eye on banks ready to buy shorts but its is not confirmed yet where HS support still not broken
20140124 ANZ 6 months channels

RIO is nearly resumed the downtrend but the hours triangle is not broken yet.
20140124 RIO 6 months channels

21/01/14 view – WTIC and shares


Crude oil (ZCL warrants)
WTIC days
20140121 WTIC days
WTIC weeks
20140121 WTIC weeks
WTIC months
20140121 WTIC months

Another boatloads of charts while XJO is in flat teritory.
Few of shares ready for trading
RIO Tinto points downwards
20140117 RIO 6months
BHP hits long term resistance
20140120 BHP SHT 6 weeks
CBA at its uptrend support
20140120 CBA 6 week
Medusa at resistance (gold did not draw any bounce out of the downtrend)
20140120 MML LNG 6 weeks
OGC looks like a bear trap with no volume at the breack out
20140120 MOGCLNG 6 weeks
Macquarie at its uptrend support
20140120 MQG SHT 6 weeks
SLR mixed feelings but looks very bullish
20140120 SLR LNG 6 weeks